LITTLE ROCK -- Despite showers Thursday and those forecast for today, climatologists consider south Arkansas, northeast Texas and northern Louisiana to be in a "flash drought" because of a prolonged dry spell, and conditions are expected to deteriorate rapidly unless more rain falls.
Nearly half of the state is classified as having some form of drought, according to a weekly report issued by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. The center, which evaluates rainfall totals, temperatures and other climate data in preparing its reports, said 45.3 percent of the state is in drought.
Just two weeks ago, only 5.7 percent of Arkansas saw drought conditions.
Arkansas last saw a flash drought in May 2012, when conditions deteriorated rapidly over the summer.
Now, the western edge of Little River County in southwest Arkansas is considered in the worst shape and received a "moderate drought" rating by the center Thursday, meaning it has a deficiency 1-2 inches of rain over a 30-day period.
Portions of seven counties that border Texas and Louisiana are "abnormally dry," meaning they are having a deficit of up to an inch of rainfall over a 30-day period.
"South Arkansas is seeing a flash drought," said Chris Finimore, a climatologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Asheville, N.C., who wrote this week's drought report.
"You've had several days of warmer than average temperatures and a lack of rainfall."
This week's report complied data through Tuesday and did not include Thursday's rainfall totals.
However, National Weather Service meteorologists said what rain did fall in southern Arkansas was sporadic and probably wouldn't affect the drought.
"We had varying amounts of rain all over the place," meteorologist Mario Valverde of Shreveport said of rainfall measured on Wednesday and Thursday morning. "There were trace amount of rain in Texarkana, a tenth of an inch in other areas and then 1.5 inches of rain in Hope.
"A half an inch of rain could help out the drought, but it needs to be widespread," he said.
Further north in Arkansas, rainfall amounts also varied greatly.
Beedeville, a southern Jackson County town, recorded 5.6 inches of rain in six hours Wednesday, meteorologist Dave Scheibe of North Little Rock said. Five miles to the east, only scarce rainfall was measured.
North Little Rock saw .71 inches of rain Wednesday and Thursday, while across the Arkansas River at Bill and Hillary National Airport, Adams Field, the gauge recorded .14 inches.
In the past few weeks, the drought increased quickly after south Arkansas saw a record lack of rainfall. For example, rain did not fall on El Dorado for 44 days, a record stretch since the National Weather Service began monitoring the town's rainfall in 1907.
The dry period contrasts with record rainfall in May that caused widespread flooding along the Red River in Little River, Lafayette, Hempstead and Miller counties.
"We had all that rain, and then the faucet turned off," Valverde said.
South-central Arkansas averaged only .03 inches of rain from July 16 through Aug. 14, the National Weather Service reported. The area normally receives about 3.5 inches of rain during the same period.
Thursday's rain in Miller County eased the worries of the county's forest ranger, but he remained wary that the dry conditions would return.
"We were a few days away from getting to a critical stage," ranger Douglas Cherry said. "We were at the point the other day that when a car got a flat tire, sparks from the tire's rim on the highway caught grass on fire."
The Arkansas Forestry Commission said Thursday that the southern half of the state and portions of north-central Arkansas were still considered in moderate for wildfire danger and urged residents to burn debris and trash in the early morning and evenings, when winds and humidity are minimal.
"People may get too optimistic about this rain and start burning again," Cherry said. "I'm a bit more pessimistic. That's my job to be so. If it stops raining now and the dry air returns, we could be back to dangerous burning conditions within three hours."
Miller County Judge Larry Burgess lifted a burn ban in his county Thursday afternoon. Eighteen counties in southern and central Arkansas remained under burn bans Thursday evening.
In Union County, cattle farmers began feeding their livestock hay they cut in May because grass was drying up, said Robin Bridges, Union County cooperative extension agent.
"They were able to produce a lot of hay because of the rainfall in the spring," Bridges said. "We'll come through this pretty well. The quality of grass is not good enough for cattle to graze."
He said Thursday's rains will help farmers with rye grass production, which they can use as feed through the winter.
"This is the perfect time for rain," he said.
Forecasters predict that El Nino, a warming of the southern Pacific Ocean, will result in colder and wetter conditions in Arkansas this fall and winter.
"If El Nino conditions continue -- and we're 90 percent sure they will -- we'll see a vast improvement in these drought conditions by the end of the year," Finimore said.
State Desk on 08/21/2015