FAYETTEVILLE -- Heading into tonight's fourth quarter of the Arkansas-Tennessee game, the trailing team's coach can look his team in the eye and assert: "We've got them right where we want them!"
And if they are tied headed into the fourth quarter, both coaches likely will preach their team somehow trails.
Bret Bielema's Razorbacks, 1-3, 0-1 in the Southeastern Conference, and Butch Jones' Vols, 2-2, 0-1, kick off at 6 p.m. on ESPN2 (Resort Channel 29) at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville after both teams lost fourth-quarter leads and the games in their SEC openers last week.
Tennessee led Florida 27-14 in the fourth quarter but yielded two touchdowns in the last five minutes to lose 28-27 at the Gainesville Swamp.
Two games earlier in Knoxville, the Vols led the now 15th-ranked Oklahoma Sooners 17-3 going into the fourth quarter. The Sooners outscored Tennessee 14-0 in the fourth to tie it 17-17 then silenced the crowd of 102,455, winning 31-24 in double overtime.
Against the No. 14 Texas A&M Aggies last week in Arlington, Texas, the Razorbacks tallied a touchdown at 14:12 of the fourth quarter to lead 21-13.
But A&M mounted a five-play, 85-yard drive capped by Tra Carson's two-yard touchdown and quarterback Kyle Allen's successful two-point conversion to knot it at 21 with 2:50 left, then won 28-21 in overtime on Allen's 21-yard touchdown pass to Christian Kirk.
So will the leading team be the more nervous team once the scoreboard signals fourth quarter?
"I will be able to answer that question afterwards," Bielema replied. "I don't think as a coach I ever really get nervous. I don't think we think about that, but I think how are we going to win in the fourth quarter. Last week we knew we were going to be a lot more aggressive on fourth-down attempts, but as far as the overall feeling, you are going to have to live the fourth quarter and see where we are."
Bielema, whose Hogs have been six- to seven-point underdogs all week, does see Arkansas vastly improved against A&M in Arlington over nonconference losses to underdogs Toledo in Little Rock and Texas Tech in Fayetteville.
"Unfortunately, it's not good enough for us to win yet, but it's getting very, very close," Bielema said.
Jones also believes his Joshua Dobbs-quarterbacked Vols are on the rise despite losing by one at Florida after they led by 13 with five minutes to go.
"Reviewing the video, I thought we played well enough to win the football game," Jones said. "We played well in all three phases: Offense, defense, special teams. It comes down, again, to closing games out and we had many opportunities to do that."
Opportunities knocked, but Jones' Vols ultimately didn't answer.
"In order to improve and correct this, we must own it," Jones said. "It starts with me first and foremost, and it starts with everyone within our football organization."
Bielema, in his third year at Arkansas from Wisconsin, and Jones, in his third year at Tennessee from Cincinnati, were saddled with sub-.500 teams in 2013 then saddled themselves with big expectations after their 7-6 teams in 2014 finished with a flourish.
Tennessee won four of its last five, starting with a 45-42 overtime victory at South Carolina and ending with a 45-28 rout of Iowa in the TaxSlayer Bowl.
So even close losses against Oklahoma and Florida, both currently unbeaten, have the Tennessee fans grumbling that Jones' Vols can't close the deal.
Arkansas won three of its last four last year, with shutouts over ranked LSU and Ole Miss and a 31-7 rout of Texas in the Texas Bowl. The Hogs boomed into this season ranked 18th, but the tumultuous tumbles to Toledo and Texas Tech and then Texas A&M escaping have the Arkansas fan base unhappy.
Tonight in the rain, meteorologists predict, one of these two teams will resurrect late 2014 momentum lost while the other continues wondering why it is losing.
Sports on 10/03/2015