Raise your hand if you thought Jeff Long would be first out the door in the University of Arkansas' athletic department.
With Wednesday's announcement from Fayetteville of Long's firing as UA athletics director, can Bret Bielema be far behind?
With Razorback football at possibly its lowest ebb since World War II, Bielema's position as head football coach has been shaky for months. A Southeastern Conference coach 29-32 overall and 11-27 in league games, Bielema's numbers at Arkansas, has little reason to expect a sixth season at his school.
Yet, under Yogi Berra's theory that "it ain't over 'til it's over," a light still shines in the window in the Razorback athletic office.
Though a double-digit underdog against nationally ranked Mississippi State on Saturday, the Razorbacks, despite everything, can earn a bowl bid by winning their next two games. A loss to the Bulldogs would scotch those hopes and further reduce interest in the regular-season finale against Missouri, which may find Reynolds Razorback Stadium less crowded on Thanksgiving Friday than Northwest Arkansas Mall.
A December early signing period in college football increases the likelihood of an Arkansas coaching change shortly after the Nov. 24 Missouri game, if not sooner. Arkansas recruits need a clear picture whether dealing with Bielema's aides or those of a new head coach. Some wonder why Arkansas is delaying the decision to fire Bielema and not, like Tennessee with Butch Jones and Florida with Jim McElwain, both recently fired, starting afresh.
With Long out, Bielema loses the man who hired him with much fanfare in December 2012 off a Rose Bowl-bound Wisconsin team. Long's decision after two years to extend Bielema's contract to 2020 with a huge buyout clause indicated the AD was "all in" with his head football coach. The Hogs' 2014 sweep of LSU, Ole Miss and Texas created such hysteria that Bielema's two-year SEC record of 2-14 was glossed over.
As late as September, addressing the Little Rock Touchdown Club two days after a Fayetteville loss to TCU before a sellout crowd, Long gave no indication that Bielema's job was at stake.
Now, less than a week after a University of Arkansas Board of Trustees meeting with far-reaching implications, Long is out.
But perhaps not for the reason that one expects.
An Arkansas media member insists that Long's firing had "precious little to do with football ... unfortunately." And that "the UA ain't paying him $4-5 million (through June 2022) to NOT be the AD because the football team didn't win enough games."
The construction project in the north end zone of Reynolds Razorback Stadium, estimated from $160 million to $220 million, looms as Long's ultimate folly. A Little Rock talk-show host said after the Oct. 21 loss to Auburn, a 52-20 massacre from which many in an original crowd of 71,961 fled, that "empty seats and [unsold luxury] suites" might force Long's hand to fire Bielema.
Those 3,200 seats especially concerned former state governor and U.S. senator David Pryor, one of two UA system board of trustees to vote against the construction project.
"The system bothers me," Pryor told a statewide publication in March 2016, three months before the trustees' 8-2 vote. "These are not general admission seats. They are seats in 'little boxes."'
Trying to sell elite seats, Long alienated the average Razorback ticket buyer in a number of ways. He became a "heavy" in the Great Stadium Debate regarding Razorback football's future presence in Little Rock. Pitching the program to a younger audience, Long got caught up in slogans and hashtags (#uncommon, a phrase from Bielema's first Arkansas press conference, has been run into the ground) and uniform changes. The Hogs' traditional cardinal- red outfits turned gray on occasion.
Meanwhile, with ticket prices rising, fans seethed, many taking advantage of saturation TV coverage and staying home on football Saturdays. Or leaving early once the game started. UA alumni, their once easy access to the athletic department denied, began grumbling loudly.
UA Chancellor Joseph Steinmetz spoke Wednesday of Long losing support of "many of our fans, alumni, key supporters and members of the university leadership ... support that I believe is critical in our pursuit of excellence."
In fairness, one cannot drive down Razorback Road in Fayetteville without admiring the UA's athletic facilities, many of them added or enhanced in Long's 10 years on the job.
The AD's good intentions notwithstanding, Razorback fans can look back at the Long years and say, "Jeff, we hardly knew ye."
Sports on 11/16/2017