One can look at today's Grade 1 $1 million Arkansas Derby in two ways.
Focus on past performances, compare numbers and make an educated selection, the traditional method.
Or, understand that even with $600,000 to the winner, winning is not as important to connections with horses who've earned enough points to qualify for the May 5 Kentucky Derby. The outcome is more crucial to anyone with a horse on the bubble or lacking points to make the 20-horse field at Churchill Downs.
If you believe in intentions, strongly consider Bob Baffert-trained Solomini and Steve Asmussen-conditioned Combatant, the latter having run in Oaklawn Park's three previous Derby preps.
Solomini (17th in the latest standings) not only needs to run well to assure Derby status but needs to move forward off his grinding second-place finish in Oaklawn's Grade 2 Rebel Stakes March 17. Sired by 2007 Arkansas Derby winner Curlin, Solomini has never finished worse than second in five starts, having a Grade 1 victory (Los Alamitos Futurity) taken away by a controversial disqualification to since-injured stablemate McKinzie.
Solomini showed determination when fighting back in deep stretch to outfight Combatant for second in the Rebel. That was his first start in three months, and he's had three strong works since the Rebel. Flavien Prat keeps the mount for Baffert and Zayat Stable, the same connections as 2015 Arkansas Derby and Triple Crown winner American Pharoah.
Combatant (24th in the standings) finished second in three consecutive points races before third in the Belmont. Scat Daddy's son needs a top-three finish to qualify for the Derby.
Beyond the top four, Machismo comes back seven days after running in the Grade 2 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland -- almost unheard of in this day and age. Unbeaten Tenfold has early speed that could set things up for stablemate Combatant while big-time closer Dream Baby Dream, also trained by Asmussen, comes off a second-place finish in the March 25 Sunland Park Derby. Plainsman and Beautiful Shot are unlikely winners but could enliven the pace scenario.
So, what about Rebel winner Magnum Moon and Tampa Bay Derby winner Quip?
Nothing wrong with either, except that having qualified for the Kentucky Derby with 50-point paydays last time, both can treat this as a true prep race. Magnum Moon, one of four Todd Pletcher trainees pointing to Louisville, might press the pace to upgrade his fitness or take far back to experience dirt being kicked in his face. He doesn't need to win but merely to run well to keep his appointed date at Churchill Downs.
Quip, Tampa Bay Derby winner at 19-1, might have more to prove. One notable Tampa Bay Derby winner, the Pletcher-trained Super Saver in 2010, won the Kentucky Derby three weeks after finishing second in the Arkansas Derby.
Predicted order: 1, Solomini. 2, Combatant. 3, Magnum Moon. 4, Quip (see Morning Line).
Count Fleet
Smart Spree entered 2018 as a high-priced claimer with six career victories in 30 starts. Trainer Norm McKnight then brought the 7-year-old Smart Strike gelding to Arkansas, and a new horse emerged. Three Oaklawn victories have come in identical fashion: quick break from gate, clear lead down backstretch and lightning quick turn of foot in fifth furlong to open leads of four lengths each time with breathtaking acceleration down the lane. Horse-of-the-meet contender if he wins.
Whitmore won this race last year and has never lost an Oaklawn sprint race but must wear down top choice from start or take back and try to run him down in stretch. Whitmore is an elite sprinter, for sure, but may need career-best performance today. Ivan Fallunovalot hasn't been as successful as in past seasons but is capable of coming off pace. Wynn Time nearly caught Whitmore in Hot Springs, when Whitmore wouldn't let Ivan get easy lead. Wilbo, King Cotton winner, can sit off what might be frenetic pace and come running late. Short field, but tremendous edition of Count Fleet.
Predicted order: 1, Smart Spree. 2, Whitmore. 3, Ivan Fallunovalot. 4, Wynn Time (see Morning Line).
Sports on 04/14/2018