Handicapping tough on opening weekend

Oaklawn Park's opening weekend featured frigid temperatures, a handful of sizzling trainers and a distinct advantage to runners breaking from outside posts, especially in sprints.

A $5.10 pick-three ended Monday's card, signaling a chalky finish to an otherwise find-a-needle-in-the-haystack selection process through the first 33 races.

Overflow fields and quality competition no doubt contributed to the difficulty for some handicappers. An average of 10.3 horses (371) broke from the gate during 36 races, and it could have been more. Twenty-three horses listed as also-eligibles did not make it into the body of the races.

There was a way to cash.

Bettors who limited their wagers to horses trained by Ingrid Mason, Jinks Fires and Hall of Famer Wayne Lukas emerged with big smiles and thick wallets.

Mason (4 of 10), Lukas (3 of 10) and Fires (3 of 4) combined to win 10 of 24, 41.6 percent. A $2 win wager on those 24 brought back $190.20, a profit of $142.20 on a $48 investment.

On the next level, trainers Brad Cox, Robertino Diodoro and Chris Hartman went 7 for 33, a respectable 21.2 percent and $19 profit on a $66 investment.

But anybody who got on the Federico Villafranco-Steve Asmussen-Ron Moquett train was left tearing up tickets.

Villafranco was 0-for 13- eight-time training champion Asmussen went 1-for-19 and Moquett was 1-for-12. They combined to go 2-for-44 after going 12-for-44 on opening weekend last year.

The jockey standings in no way resembled the first week of 2017, when Geovanni Franco, Jose Ortiz and Ramon Vazquez were tied with five winners each.

This year, you need an AARP card to battle for the lead.

Hall of Famer Gary Stevens, 54, and Jon Court, 57, share the lead with newcomers David Cohen, C.J. McMahon and David Cabrera with four winners each.

The top three Oaklawn finishers last year -- five-time reigning champion Ricardo Santana Jr., Vazquez and Franco -- combined to go 0-for-8. Santana and Vazquez were finishing suspensions held over from the end of last season and Franco has chosen to race elsewhere.

Santana started slowly last year, missing four days via suspension and a fifth when going out of town. It took 16 racing days, and 24 victories in 100 mounts, but Santana was atop the standings by the 21st day, Feb. 21, and totaled 53 victories.

Vazquez, runner-up to Santana in 2016 and third last year, combined for 89 victories, sat out the first three days over the weekend, serving a suspension from last year and was 0-for-5 Monday.

The track profile, except for the second day of racing, favored horses breaking from outside posts in sprints, with the average sprint winner laying three lengths behind after a quarter mile and 3.1 lengths back after a half.

Speed played better in route races with five on-the-lead winners in 17 races. The average winner was 2.8 lengths back after a quarter mile and 1.4 lengths behind through six furlongs.

The racetrack, as it sometimes does in cold temperatures, favored horses breaking from outside posts, especially in sprints.

It was similar in routes, but kinder to inside horses, with seven of 17 winners coming from the three inside posts. More surprising was how well outside horses performed in routes with 10 of 17 winners coming from the six post out, a winner from No. 12 included.

Outside horses fared even better in sprints, seven winners coming out of the four inside posts, but none from the rail post. Ten winners came from No 8 out, three in post 12. Last year there were four winners out of post 12 in 59 attempts.

Race after race, early speedsters battled for control and weakened on the turn, only to see a parade of up-close midpack runners going four, five or six paths wide to take command.

Times were close to par for class level on days 2-4 after checking in about six lengths slow opening day.

Bettors will have to wait and see whether horses trapped inside down the backstretch in sprints fare better this week. One suggestion is to watch head-on replays in sprints and see if any of the jockeys are hugging the rail. In most cases, jockeys tried to stay no closer to the rail than the two path.

Sports on 01/19/2018

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