Like the NCAA basketball tournament, entering its second round today, horse racing's Road to the Triple Crown is all about scoring points.
Churchill Downs, host to America's most legendary horse race, changed the Kentucky Derby qualifying rules a few years ago. With a stroke of the pen, points assigned to certain Derby preps replaced earnings from graded stakes as the criterion for determining eligibility to the first-Saturday-in-May classic in Louisville.
Under the previous system -- long before that, actually -- the Hopeful Stakes winner would be a shoo-in as a leading contender. Horse racing reveres history, after all, and Saratoga's premier event for 2-year-olds has produced such luminary future champions as Secretariat, Affirmed and Native Dancer.
Winning the race a record eight times, though with none of his four Kentucky Derby winners, trainer Wayne Lukas still regards the Hopeful, now at seven furlongs, as an important milepost in a young horse's development. But under the new rules, the Hopeful is not included as a Derby-qualifying points race. And after a physical setback in his 2-year-old season sent him to the bench for several months, 2017 Hopeful winner Sporting Chance, trained by Lukas, needs a points boost to race in the 144th Derby May 5.
His Derby status and that of 10 other 3-year-olds can clear up or become further clouded in today's Grade 2 $900,000 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park.
The Rebel winner receives 50 points, essentially removing one obstacle to a run for the roses. Lukas is in a good position for the Derby with Oaklawn winner Bravazo, Fair Grounds' Risen Star winner, third in the standings with 54 points. Sporting Chance, however, only has 4 points after a third-place finish in Oaklawn's Grade 3 $500,000 Southwest Feb. 19, the Tiznow colt's first start since winning the Hopeful on Labor Day.
Hall of Famer John Velazquez climbs aboard Sporting Chance, whose previous rider, Luis Saez, keeps the mount on the undefeated Todd Pletcher trainee Magnum Moon. Lukas said he would have preferred more of an inside post for Sporting Chance, who drew No. 7, although "sometimes we overanalyze the gate position.
"If the gate opens and you get a nice gap, then you can do what you want away from the gate. You're either clear early or you're the clean speed," said Lukas, whose first Kentucky Derby winner, the filly Winning Colors in 1988, led from gate to wire at Churchill Downs. "I'm always more concerned who's around me. It always makes a difference. Everybody says, 'What about the gate? What about the gate?' Well, unless you've got a crystal ball, you don't know how it's going to play out when it opens."
Sporting Chance, his Grade 1 victory notwithstanding, is third choice on the morning line at 5-1. Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, whose March appearances at Oaklawn are as seasonal as blooming dogwood trees, seeks his seventh Rebel victory in nine years with early 3-2 favorite Solomini. A son of 2007 Rebel and Arkansas Derby winner Curlin, Solomini would have more than 14 Derby points if not for a disqualification and show placing after crossing the finish line first in December's Grade 1 Los Alamitos Futurity in Southern California.
What Baffert called a "minor setback" in January has delayed Solomini's 3-year-old debut. Regular jockey Flavien Prat follows the colt to Oaklawn, where Baffert has 13 victories in Kentucky Derby preps -- most recently with the ill-fated Mourinho in the $150,000 Smarty Jones Stakes Jan. 15.
"He's been doing really well," Baffert said. "Glad to get him back. He's been training well, so we're just hoping for a good run."
Two years since his last Rebel victory, with Cupid, Baffert gave a brief scouting report on the colt co-owned by Zayat Stables, whose American Pharoah, trained by Baffert, had winning preps in the Rebel and Arkansas Derby in 2015 before sweeping the Triple Crown.
"They're all different," Baffert said. "It's hard to really compare any of them. (Solomini) is not going to wow you in the morning, watching him train. But he shows up in the afternoons. He just likes to gut it out. He has a big heart. Everything I've brought up there is different."
Solomini is so highly regarded that the Coolmare partners of Susan Magnier, Michael Tabor and Derrick Smith purchased an interest in the colt following the Los Alamitos Futurity.
The mile-and-sixteenth Rebel is a make-or-break race for two horses with no points and fighting the so-called "Apollo jinx" regarding Kentucky Derby starters. In short, no horse unraced at 2 has won the Kentucky Derby since Apollo in 1882. Magnum Moon is the early 7-2 second choice on the morning line after winning twice in Florida. Curlin's Honor, also unbeaten in two starts, is 12-1 in the program for Mark Casse, last year's Arkansas Derby-winning trainer with champion juvenile Classic Empire. Florent Geroux, regular jockey of 2017 Horse of the Year Gun Runner, rides Curlin's Honor, who like Magnum Moon is making his stakes debut.
Gun Runner's trainer, Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen, has three Rebel starters, one suited for almost any pace scenario. Oaklawn winner Title Ready, Jose Ortiz aboard, might soften the speed from the rail post while Combatant (Ricardo Santana Jr.) stalks from the 10 hole and late-running Zing Zang (Corey Lanerie, post 9) seeks a clear path.
Completing the field are Oaklawn winners Higher Power and Pryor, track newcomer but locally owned High North and the 50-1 longshot Bode's Maker. Higher Power, a half-brother to millionaire and 2012 Oaklawn Handicap winner Alternation, won a mile race Jan. 13 and here returns after missing about a week of training because of a minor illness.
"The five post, anywhere in the middle, you're probably happy with what you've got," said Higher Power trainer Donnie Von Hemel, obviously wanting a higher number than saddlecloth No. 5 at the end.
With Derby time nearing and points precious, the Rebel's top four finishers (on a 50-20-10-5 breakdown) get their names marked in the Churchill Downs scorebook. Post time is 6:09 p.m. for the richest March race on Oaklawn's schedule and surely the richest ever carded last on a 10-race card. Gates open at 11 a.m. with Oaklawn's first post at 1:05 p.m.
Sports on 03/17/2018