Mike Smith's decision to ride Omaha Beach in the Kentucky Derby made one morning-line handicapper's job easier.
The Arkansas Derby winner is the early 9-2 choice for the May 4 classic on Horse Racing Nation co-founder Mark Midland's early odds Wednesday. The War Front colt keeps his regular jockey, Hall of Famer Smith, who on Tuesday chose War Front over fellow Grade 1 winner Roadster. Hall of Famer Richard Mandella trains Omaha Beach, winner of three straight including the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby and Grade 2 Rebel at Oaklawn Park.
Smith is a two-time Kentucky Derby winner, most recently on Triple Crown winner Justify last year.
"Obviously, the Mike Smith decision was huge," said Midland, who in 1999 created Churchill Downs' Kentucky Derby Future Wager. "Were he to ride Roadster, that might have created more momentum for that runner."
Roadster, trained by Hall of Famer Bob Baffert, is Midland's projected 5-1 second choice with Tacitus, the Grade 2 Wood Memorial winner, third on the board at 6-1. Whereas Baffert has won the race five times, saddling two Triple Crown winners (American Pharoah and Justify) in the last four years, neither Mandella nor Bill Mott, Hall of Fame trainer of Tacitus, has won the Kentucky Derby.
Each of the top three on Midland's board has two straight wins, which is uncommon for this group of 3-year-olds. It's been speculated that the post-time favorite could exceed the $6.30-to-1 record high set by Lookin At Lucky in 2010.
Next on Midland's list are champion Game Winner (8-1), Improbable (10-1) and Maximum Security (10-1). Game Winner and Improbable, both trained by Baffert, have each lost two in a row, Improbable finishing second by a neck in the March 16 Rebel (split into two divisions) and one length in the Arkansas Derby. Game Winner was undefeated before losing the second division of the Rebel by a nose, then was second to stablemate Roadster in the Santa Anita.
"Baffert's other two runners, Game Winner and Improbable, are drifting up in price after consecutive losses," Midland said. "However, both have won over the Churchill Downs track.
"Maximum Security, the Florida Derby winner, is a former claimer and still considered a longshot by many," he said. "But the feeling is he will receive consistent support due to his undefeated record, powerful victory and perhaps a lack of other pace in the Derby."
Longtime oddsmaker Mike Battaglia will set the official morning line when Derby post positions are drawn. Those odds reflect the linemaker's estimate of the win-pool odds for each horse at post time.
Arkansas Derby show horse Country House, Oaklawn-raced Cutting Humor and Rebel first-division winner Long Range Toddy are 30-1 on Midland's board. The others below 20-1 are Code of Honor and Grade 2 Blue Grass winner Vekoma, both 15-1.
Sports on 04/18/2019