Schools and elections

OPINION

In 2016, the Democrats managed to nominate about the only person that could lose an election to the likes of Donald Trump.

The Republicans are now about to return the favor by re-nominating perhaps the only person who could lose an election to a man, Joe Biden, that must be kept in his basement lest he be exposed as too mentally feeble to carry out the duties of any public office, let alone the presidency. For the first time in our history, we are on the verge of electing someone many doubt will be able to make it through even the first year of his term.

But even if many voters have decided that the Trump show has to end by whatever means and dismal alternatives, it is still possible for the Democrats to blow it, and the school-closing issue might be the catalyst for that.

In considering the debate over whether public schools should stay closed or open back up, it becomes clear that the positions taken largely correspond to prior positions on the shutdowns, and that that correspondence, in turn, relates to whether people have the kinds of jobs that permit them to work from home. Those in favor of extending the shutdowns (or perhaps now re-imposing them in places) tended to be the kind of white-collar professionals who could; those opposing them people were who couldn't and who were watching their livelihoods and businesses being destroyed during the lockdowns.

What we're now seeing is that those who want schools to reopen are parents who can't work from home and have school-age kids, while those wanting to keep them closed are more likely to be unmarried without kids or married with kids and able to work from home with the kids around.

The "chattering classes" (those who work in media, education, law, publishing and the arts, and who overwhelmingly support Democrats and are less likely to be married with kids) are, on the school reopening issue, as with the lockdowns, pitted against members of the working class and small-business owners who are married, have school-age children and tend to vote Republican.

What can be called the "Trump effect," as for so many other issues, also comes into play here, defined as the tendency of the left more broadly and Democrats more specifically to automatically oppose whatever Trump supports.

That the left would come out in favor of keeping schools closed was virtually guaranteed once Trump loudly came out in favor of opening them (conversely, the hunch is that if Trump had demanded they stay closed, the left would have begun to suddenly make arguments about how the kids needed to be back in school and weren't at much risk from the virus while there).

The danger in all this for Democrats in an election year is, however, four-fold.

First, that their support for keeping schools closed might end up revealing to too great an extent the degree of control that the teachers' unions have over the party and its positions on public education (control which has been long exercised, but also effectively obscured from most of the public). This risk is likely to become even more pronounced if, as some unions are threatening, their minions go on strike to protest openings and force Democrats to either side with them or with angry parents.

Second, and closely related, Democrats could be perceived as playing politics with the public schools in an election year as part of the effort to defeat Trump, with children used as pawns in that campaign. The charge that the teachers' unions are the enemies of quality education because they care more about what's best for teachers than what's best for kids has long been made by conservatives, but might resonate well beyond such circles under such circumstances.

Third, and in the same way that the "defund the police" movement does, Democratic nominee Joe Biden will be put in the position of trying to finesse an issue that is both highly salient and can't be easily finessed (either supporting the opening of schools and the education of children or keeping them closed to appease the teachers' unions). This will become an even more acute challenge when Biden has to come out of his basement for the presidential debates, wherein a clear position one way or the other will likely have to be staked out.

Finally, for Democrats there is the very real possibility that Trump might have actually even if inadvertently exploited the "Trump effect" to back them into a position (keeping schools closed) that will alienate and cost them the support of suburban swing-state mothers who could be a decisive voting bloc in November.

The Democrat strategy has thus far consisted of a simple if cynical strategy: Keep Biden hidden away as much as possible between now and Nov. 3 and watch as Trump implodes (and then, with his usefulness having come to an end, and his primary service performed, send Slow Joe into an early retirement with gold watch).

It's a winning strategy, but only as long as the Democrats don't become the "defund police, keep schools closed" party.

Freelance columnist Bradley R. Gitz, who lives and teaches in Batesville, received his Ph.D. in political science from the University of Illinois.

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