COVID-19 update: State continues trend of lower numbers

This illustration provided by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in January 2020 shows the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV). (CDC via AP, file photo)
This illustration provided by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in January 2020 shows the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV). (CDC via AP, file photo)

EDITOR'S NOTE: As a service to our readers, The Sentinel-Record publishes updates released each weekday by the city of Hot Springs and the state of Arkansas.

The following stats were shared Tuesday at Gov. Asa Hutchinson's daily COVID-19 news conference in Little Rock and posted on the Arkansas Department of Health website:

• 50,411 cumulative cases, up 383 from Monday.

• 572,868 test reports, up 3,548 from Monday.

• 8.8% infection rate, no change from Monday.

• 6,847 active cases, down 496 from Monday.

• 42,998 recoveries, up 859 from Monday.

• 507 hospitalizations, down one from Monday.

• 116 cases on a ventilator, down one from Monday.

• 566 deaths, up 11 from Monday.

• 1,071 cumulative cases in Garland County, up 13 from Monday.

• 15,211 test reports for Garland County, up 38 from Monday.

• 14,056 private lab reports, up 34 from Monday.

• 1,155 public lab reports, up four from Monday

• 7% infection rate, no change from Monday.

• 224 active cases, down 16 from Monday.

• 830 recoveries in Garland County, up 28 from Monday.

• 17 deaths, up one from Monday.

The 383 new cases reported Tuesday were the fewest in more than five weeks, continuing a four-day trend of lower case numbers.

Tuesday's new cases, the fewest since the 259 reported July 7, came from about 1,000 fewer test reports than the state receives on a typical day. Even with that caveat, Hutchinson said Tuesday's numbers were welcome news, explaining that there would have been about 100 more cases from a normal day of test reports.

"Even in you look at it from that perspective, we still had a very good day in terms of a lower increase in our cases," Hutchinson said, noting that Tuesday's reported cases came from 4,140 reports. " ... Even if you made an adjustment because of the lower level of testing, it would still be a significant decrease.

"I'm not ready to say we have a trend, but we're very encouraged with the last three or four days. If you look at the last two or three weeks, there will be some spikes, but we hope the overall trend will be coming down. I do believe that is attributable to the work of Arkansans in complying with the mask order."

Tuesday's reported cases lowered the rolling seven-day average of new cases for a third-straight day. Tuesday's 718.57 average was 12% lower than the July 29 peak of 817.43. Active cases fell to their lowest point in 11 days.

Dr. Jose Romero, Health Department secretary, said the mask order that went into effect more than three weeks ago is probably contributing to the reduction in new infections.

"The trend appears to be going down, and we think if we have another day or two of this we can definitely say there's a downward trend," he said. "This is most likely attributable to the mask mandate."

Hutchinson and Education Secretary Johnny Key said COVID-19 data distilled down to the school district level will soon be available. Cumulative and active cases and infection rates for the population within a school district's boundary will be posted online.

"It won't be totals of school district personnel or students," Key said. "This is reflective of the broader community that exists in that school district boundary."

Key said the analytics initiative is a partnership between the Health and Education departments and the Arkansas Center for Health Improvement.

"We can have a weekly feed of COVID-19 positive cases from the Health Department and converting that to an analytic file and assigning geographic locations, basically overlaying that data onto a map of school districts," he said.

The 13 new cases reported in Garland County raised its rolling seven-day average of new cases for a third day in a row. Tuesday's 27.42 average was higher than the 23.71 average a week earlier but lower than the moving average peak of 30 July 31.

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