COVID-19 udpate: State braces for possible post-holiday spike

This illustration provided by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in January 2020 shows the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV). - Image by CDC via The Associated Press
This illustration provided by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in January 2020 shows the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV). - Image by CDC via The Associated Press

As a service to our readers, The Sentinel-Record publishes updates released by the city of Hot Springs and the state of Arkansas.

The following stats were posted Monday on the Arkansas Department of Health website:

• 138,056 cumulative confirmed cases, up 966 from Sunday.

• 1,235.86 rolling seven-day average of new confirmed cases, up 7.72 from Sunday.

• 8.2% cumulative PCR infection rate, no change from Sunday.

• 19,303 cumulative probable cases, up 146 from Sunday.

• 17.2% cumulative antigen infection rate, up from 17.1% Sunday.

• 16,140 active confirmed and probable cases, down 744 from Sunday.

• 138,696 recoveries of confirmed and probable cases, up 1,824 from Sunday.

• 1,063 hospitalizations, up 33 from Sunday.

• 201 cases on a ventilator, up 16 from Sunday.

• 2,295 confirmed deaths, up 30 from Sunday.

• 207 probable deaths, up two from Sunday.

• 3,571 cumulative confirmed cases in Garland County, up 60 from Sunday.

• 43.71 rolling seven-day average of new confirmed cases, up 6.42 from Sunday.

• 53,640 PCR and antigen test reports, up 509 from Sunday.

• 6.9% cumulative PCR infection rate, no change from Sunday.

• 370 active confirmed cases in Garland County, up 19 from Sunday.

• 3,102 recoveries of confirmed cases in Garland County, up 31 from Sunday.

• 301 cumulative probable cases in Garland County, up five from Sunday.

• 66 active probable cases in Garland County, down seven from Sunday.

• 99 confirmed deaths, up one from Sunday.

• Six probable deaths, no change from Sunday.

The state's infection curve remained below the Thanksgiving peak for a fourth day in a row Monday, with Monday's rolling seven-day average of new confirmed cases more than 11% lower than last week's peak.

A new peak was set 19 times in the 21-day period that ended on Thanksgiving. The curve rose more than 85% in the 26 days that followed Halloween. Gov. Asa Hutchinson said Monday that the state is bracing for another post-holiday spike.

"Based upon national trends and expert concerns on the holiday season, it does seem that we are in the lull before the storm," Hutchinson said in a news release. "I expect the antigen testing to pick up again later in the week, and that is where many of the positive cases are identified. I applaud our Health Department team and all the health care workers who have been so diligent during this entire pandemic."

Hospitalizations peaked for the second day in a row Monday, with a net increase of 33. Hospitalization have remained above 1,000 since Wednesday.

"Today's increase in hospitalizations will continue to strain our health care system," Hutchinson said. "Our front-line workers need our help as we head into the winter months of this pandemic."

The 60 new confirmed cases reported Monday in Garland County raised its infection curve 17%. Monday's 43.71 rolling seven-day average of new confirmed cases was more than 8% lower than the peak reached Nov. 14 and 17.

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