COVID-19 update: Rolling average hits new peak

This illustration provided by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in January 2020 shows the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV). (CDC via AP, file photo)
This illustration provided by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in January 2020 shows the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV). (CDC via AP, file photo)

EDITOR'S NOTE: As a service to our readers, The Sentinel-Record will publish updates released each weekday by the city of Hot Springs and the state of Arkansas.

The following stats were shared Tuesday at Gov. Asa Hutchinson's daily COVID-19 news conference in Mountain Home and posted on the Arkansas Department of Health's website:

• 16,678 cumulative cases, up 595 from Monday.

• 264,492 tests reported, up 8,153 from Monday.

• 6.3% infection rate, no change from Monday.

• 5,221 active cases, up 158 from Monday.

• 11,220 recoveries, up 427 from Monday.

• 248 hospitalizations, up 11 from Monday.

• 237 deaths, up 10 from Monday.

• 624 cumulative nursing home residents infected, up five from Monday.

• 57 cases on a ventilator, down four from Monday.

• 183 cumulative cases in Garland County, up three from Monday.

• 5,806 tests reported for Garland County, up 84 from Monday.

• 3.2% rate of infection, up from 3.1% Monday.

• 24 active cases in Garland County, no change from Monday.

• One death in Garland County, no change from Monday.

The 595 new cases reported Tuesday pushed the rolling seven-day average to a new peak of 498.14. Tuesday's average was 10.1% higher than Monday's and 7.7% higher than the previous peak June 17. The infection rate, or positive tests as a percent of cumulative tests, has increased 21% in the last five weeks.

Tuesday was the second time in four days that double-digit deaths were reported, increasing the total to 237. Hospitalizations also reached a new high, with 248 COVID-19 patients in hospitals Tuesday. Hospitalizations have increased 320% in the last six weeks.

"These are challenging numbers that you see, and they continue to challenge our state," Hutchinson said. "We have to continue to work to address it."

Tuesday's numbers pale in comparison to those forecast by the University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences Fay W. Boozman College of Public Health's predictive model. It projects that by the end of September the state could need 3,000 to 6,200 hospital beds for COVID-19 patients and 1,000 to 1,800 intensive care unit beds.

Health Department data Hutchinson shared Monday showed the state had 8,917 total hospital beds and 970 ICU beds.

"On the model they do we're predicted to continue along the current trajectory and peak in late September or early October," Hutchinson said. "Our goal is to change the trajectory."

He said investments in expanded testing and contact tracing need to be reinforced by personal responsibility to flatten the curve.

"That's where the discipline comes in, the social distancing and breaking those lifelong habits and courtesies we enjoy," he said. "If we can do that, we can make a difference in that trajectory. Everybody has a part to play.

Tuesday's new cases included 212 from correctional settings. Malvern's Ouachita River Unit of the Arkansas Department of Correction accounted for 128 of the infections.

"Even though it's a high number today, if you look at community cases it's actually a good progression," Hutchinson said of the 383 community cases.

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