As a service to our readers, The Sentinel-Record publishes updates released by the city of Hot Springs and the state of Arkansas.
The following stats were posted Friday on the Arkansas Department of Health website:
• 216,339 cumulative confirmed cases, up 2,140 from Thursday.
• 1,942.43 rolling seven-day average of new confirmed cases, down 10.14 from Thursday.
• 2,248,612 PCR test reports, up 14,768 from Thursday.
• 9.6% cumulative PCR infection rate, no change from Thursday.
• 275,500 vaccine doses received, no change from Thursday.
• 119,065 doses given, up 6,827 from Thursday.
• 51,296 cumulative probable cases, up 984 from Thursday.
• 19.7% cumulative antigen infection rate, up from 19.6% Thursday.
• 25,613 active confirmed and probable cases, up 873 from Thursday.
• 237,729 recoveries of confirmed and probable cases, up 2,216 from Thursday.
• 1,314 hospitalizations, up 19 from Thursday.
• 226 cases on a ventilator, down 15 from Thursday.
• 434 ICU admissions, up eight from Thursday.
• 3,525 confirmed deaths, up 30 from Thursday.
• 738 probable deaths, up five from Thursday.
• 1,714 nursing home deaths, up 15 from Thursday.
• 6,326 cumulative confirmed cases in Garland County, up 124 from Thursday.
• 105.86 rolling seven-day average of new confirmed cases, up 12.72 from Thursday.
• 77,973 PCR and antigen test reports, up 395 from Thursday.
• 57,657 private lab reports, up 304 from Thursday.
• 20,316 public lab reports, up 91 from Thursday.
• 8.9% cumulative PCR infection rate, no change from Thursday.
• 702 active confirmed cases in Garland County, up 61 from Thursday.
• 5,471 recoveries of confirmed cases in Garland County, up 61 from Thursday.
• 1,083 cumulative probable cases in Garland County, up 14 from Thursday.
• 182 active probable cases in Garland County, down five from Thursday.
• 153 confirmed deaths, up two from Thursday.
• 29 probable deaths, up one from Thursday.
Gov. Asa Hutchinson will receive his first dose of the vaccine Monday, when people 70 and older, educators and day care workers become eligible for vaccination. Hutchinson turned 70 last month. The news release his office issued Friday night said he'll get the shot at the Health Department.
The Arkansas Health Care Association, the lobbying and advocacy group for the state's nursing home industry, said more than 25,000 nursing home residents and staff have been given their first dose of the vaccine. Many facilities are preparing to give secondary doses next week, the AHCA's news release said.
The predictive model the University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences updated this week forecast almost 60,000 additional confirmed and probable cases by the end of next month. The model predicted hospitalizations will peak in late April, with 1,995 the mean-case estimate and 4,120 the worst-case estimate. The former would be a more than 50% increase from the number reported Friday.
Active confirmed and probable cases are also predicted to peak at about 30,000 in April. Fewer than 26,000 were reported Friday.
UAMS' report said the rate of vaccination will have to pick up if the vaccine is to have a significant effect on new cases, hospitalizations and deaths in the next two months.
"This will require thinking beyond current vaccine strategies relying on office and pharmacy-based programs," the report said. "Expecting people to take time off from work and come to an office or central facility twice in 30 days will not produce the hoped-for results. Vaccination rates for COVID-19 will likely be equal to or less than those for the annual flu unless new, more effective approaches are taken."
More than 100 new confirmed cases were reported for the seventh time in 10 days Friday in Garland County, raising the county's polymerase chain reaction-confirmed infection curve 14%. The county's rolling seven-day average of new confirmed cases reached triple digits for the first time since Tuesday. Active confirmed cases peaked, rising 7% from the previous peak reached Jan. 7.