Any way you look at it, trainer Brad Cox holds a strong hand in the $6 million Breeders' Cup Classic Saturday at Del Mar in Southern California.
The 41-year-old Louisville native has the projected one-two finishers in North America's richest horse race with both Knicks Go and Essential Quality seeking their second Breeders' Cup triumphs. Knicks Go won the Dirt Mile and Essential Quality the Juvenile last year at Keeneland, Essential Quality winning an Eclipse Award as North America's best 2-year-old colt. A prominent Oaklawn trainer, Cox won two other Breeders' Cup races in his home state and also earned year-end championship honors.
If possible, Cox has outdone himself in 2021. Besides Knicks Go and Essential Quality in the Classic, Cox entered Shedaresthedevil (co-owned by Staton Flurry, of Hot Springs) in the $2 million Distaff and Juju's Map in the $2 million Juvenile Fillies, Bubble Rock and Turnerloose in the $1 million Juvenile Fillies Turf and Ready to Purrform in the $1 million Juvenile Turf.
Horse of the Year clearly is at stake in the mile-and-a-quarter Classic with Knicks Go ranked No. 1 and Essential Quality No. 3 in the weekly National Thoroughbred Racing Association poll. Five-year-old Knicks Go comes off three straight victories and has Grade 1 triumphs at Gulfstream Park and Saratoga. The son of Paynter leads all Breeders' Cup starters with career earnings off $5,553,135 from a 23-9-3-1 lifetime record.
Knicks Go, with Joel Rosario up, is 5-2 on the morning line and could be the speed of the speed. Essential Quality, meeting his stablemate for the first time on the track, sits just off the pace, a style that has carried him to eight wins from nine starts. His only defeat came when fourth by one length to Medina Spirit in the May 1 Kentucky Derby, later annexing Grade 1 victories in the Belmont Stakes and Travers for a season-high $2,880,000 in earnings.
Essential Quality can become the first 3-year-old Classic winner not trained by Bob Baffert since Curlin in 2007. He also can become the first Juvenile winner to go on and win the Classic. With Luis Saez up, the son of Tapit is 3-1 second choice on the morning line.
"If (Essential Quality) wins the Classic, I think we would have to look at him as one of the better horses in the last 25 years," Cox said. "... These are serious records he's putting together."
Essential Quality is matched against last year's Juvenile runner-up, Hot Rod Charlie, who finished third in the Kentucky Derby and second in the Belmont Stakes. Hot Rod Charlie trainer Doug O'Neill won the 2015 Juvenile and 2016 Derby with Nyquist, his second Derby winner in five years.
"I think a lot of people are just being patient," O'Neill said of the ability of the 2-year-olds of 2020 to hold their form at 3. "I think that patience has enabled these horses like Essential Quality and Hot Rod Charlie and some of these others as well."
Fourth-place 2020 Juvenile finisher Jackie's Warrior went a different way as a speed horse. With four graded stakes wins, including the Grade 1 Allen Jerkens at Saratoga, the Steve Asmussen trainee is 6-5 morning-line favorite in the $2 million Breeders' Cup Sprint.
Although his Kentucky Derby victory is clouded because of a failed drug test, Medina Spirit bids to break Baffert's record with the trainer's fifth Classic victory. All were with 3-year-olds, including Triple Crown winner American Pharoah in 2015 and Authentic last year.
In the year that he became North America's career leader in training victories, Asmussen can score his third Classic victory with 8-1 outsider Max Player. Formerly trained by Linda Rice, the 4-year-old Honor Code comes off a four-length victory in the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup at the Classic distance. Perennial Oaklawn riding champion Ricardo Santana Jr. seeks his first Classic victory.
Completing the nine-horse Classic field (7:40 p.m. post time) are Tripoli; Express Train; Stiletto Bay; and Art Collector, coming off a Grade 1 victory at Belmont for Bill Mott. Essential Quality, Knicks Go and Stilletto Boy are Oaklawn-raced winners and Express Train placed third in April's Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap.
The Distaff looms as a career milestone for co-owner Flurry, whose Shedaresthedevil won last year's Kentucky Oaks but sat out the Breeders' Cup in favor of the Cox-trained Monomoy's Girl, who won the Distaff a second time. The 4-year-old filly has scored two more Grade 1 wins this year, including last time out at Del Mar.
Letruska is 8-5 Distaff favorite in a season that she has four Grade 1 victories, including Oaklawn's Apple Blossom Handicap in April. But the 5-year-old Super Saver mare's only 2021 defeat came to Shedaresthedevil by a head in Oaklawn's Grade 2 Azeri in March, though Letruska won a June rematch in Belmont's Grade 1 Ogden Phipps.
Trying for his third Distaff victory in five years, Cox made a strong year-end plug for Shedaresthedevil (4-1) if she springs the upset.
"I don't have a vote, but I'd think (Shedaresthedevil) would the champion if she wins the Distaff," Cox said Tuesday. "It would be her third Grade 1 this year and she would have beaten Letruska twice."
Friday's five Breeders' Cup are for 2-year-olds with the Chad Brown-trained Jack Christopher likely favorite in the Juvenile and the Asmussen-trained Echo Zulu likewise in the Juvenile Fillies. Nine Breeders' Cup events are scheduled Saturday with the 12-race card beginning at 12:15 p.m. CDT. Oaklawn will be open both days for simulcasting and wagers also may be made online at www.oaklawnanywhere.com.