Gov. Asa Hutchinson noted at his weekly press update Tuesday that new case growth has been lower than what the state's college of public health has projected, but COVID-19 deaths have aligned with the college's forecasts.
The predictive model the University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences Fay W. Boozman College of Public Health updated Tuesday forecast the state will reach 8,000 deaths by Oct. 5, a 6% increase from the number reported Wednesday.
"While our cases are lower than projection, and while the hospitalizations are down, you can see our deaths are meeting or exceeding the projection," Hutchinson said. "This is troublesome because it shows the seriousness of the virus. If you're looking at what's the best way to reduce your odds of being infected or hospitalization or death, obviously vaccination is the smart way to go."
Hutchinson has said the number of deaths the Arkansas Department of Health reports on a given day doesn't always reflect the number of people who died during the previous 24 hours. The time it takes death investigators to confirm COVID-19 as the cause of death causes some deaths to be reported weeks or months after the fact.
Hutchinson said the 36 deaths reported Sept. 14 are an example of how late reporting affects the daily death count. He said seven occurred in July, two in June and two in August.
The report the college released Tuesday with its updated model noted the decline in new case growth and hospitalizations provide "some glimmer of hope" but predicted "more pain to come."
"New cases and hospitalizations remain extremely high," the report said. "Daily deaths, which lag case and hospitalization numbers, are forecast to continue at unacceptable levels. The shift in the pandemic towards young adults and children is extremely worrisome. ...
"It is past time to end Arkansas' COVID-19 pandemic. We have the tools. What is needed is the will."
As a service to our readers, The Sentinel-Record publishes updates released by the city of Hot Springs and the state of Arkansas.
The Arkansas Department of Health is no longer reporting confirmed and probable cases separately. The following stats were posted Wednesday on the Health Department's website:
• 488,316 cumulative cases, up 1,463 from Tuesday.
• 1,315.14 rolling seven-day average of new cases, down 65.15 from Tuesday.
• 3,852,419 PCR test reports, up 10,196 from Tuesday.
• 9.4% cumulative PCR infection rate, no change from Tuesday.
• 13,714 active cases, down 511 from Tuesday.
• 3,800 active juvenile cases, down 114 from Tuesday.
• 466,946 recoveries, up 1,942 from Tuesday.
• 3,725,800 vaccine doses received, up 8,410 from Tuesday.
• 2,856,877 doses given, up 6,214 from Tuesday.
• 967 hospitalizations, down 26 from Tuesday.
• 256 cases on ventilators, down 22 from Tuesday.
• 416 ICU patients, down 23 from Tuesday.
• 7,528 deaths, up 29 from Tuesday.
• 2,191 nursing home deaths, up two from Tuesday.
• 15,407 cumulative cases in Garland County, up 19 from Tuesday.
• 31.43 rolling seven-day average, down 1.71 from Tuesday.
• 152,293 PCR and antigen test reports, up 402 from Tuesday.
• 10.3% cumulative PCR infection rate, no change from Tuesday.
• 290 active cases in Garland County, down 39 from Tuesday.
• 14,751 recoveries in Garland County, up 58 from Tuesday.
• 366 deaths, no change from Tuesday.