Active cases in Garland County increased Thursday for the second time in two weeks but were 73% lower than the Aug. 14 peak of 1,111.
The 56 new cases reported Thursday lowered the county's rolling seven-day average for the 27th time in the 42 days that followed the non-winter peak the average reached Aug. 12. Thursday's moving average was 70% lower than the average recorded Aug. 12.
According to a city of Hot Springs news release, Dr. Gene Shelby, the county's health officer, told the Hot Springs/Garland County COVID-19 Task Force Monday the declining numbers are encouraging but cautioned another wave could be on the horizon. He noted the ascent to the peak the infection curve reached in early January began last October.
"My recommendation is not to just look at where we are now, but to look at past data as to where we might be headed a month from now," Shelby said. "Our numbers have really come down over the last three weeks, but it is premature to say that this downward trend is permanent."
County deaths reported in September are on pace to reach 50 for the second consecutive month. The average number of deaths reported per day in September are close to the 1.77 during August. The 55 deaths reported in August were the most of any month during the pandemic.
Shelby said the county's one COVID-19 death per 273 people was significantly higher than the statewide death rate of one per more than 400 people.
"This is a sobering number, to see the impact this has had on the death rate in Garland County," Shelby said. "I'm sure everyone on this call knows someone, either directly or indirectly, who has died from COVID."
As a service to our readers, The Sentinel-Record publishes updates released by the city of Hot Springs and the state of Arkansas.
The Arkansas Department of Health is no longer reporting confirmed and probable cases separately. The following stats were posted Thursday on the Health Department's website:
• 489,856 cumulative cases, up 1,540 from Wednesday.
• 1,274.57 rolling seven-day average of new cases, down 40.57 from Wednesday.
• 3,860,986 PCR test reports, up 8,567 from Wednesday.
• 9.4% cumulative PCR infection rate, no change from Wednesday.
• 13,501 active cases, down 213 from Wednesday.
• 3,733 active juvenile cases, down 67 from Wednesday.
• 468,677 recoveries, up 1,731 from Wednesday.
• 3,726,970 vaccine doses received, up 1,170 from Wednesday.
• 2,861,996 doses given, up 5,119 from Wednesday.
• 956 hospitalizations, down 11 from Wednesday.
• 254 cases on ventilators, down two from Wednesday.
• 414 ICU patients, down two from Wednesday.
• 7,548 deaths, up 20 from Wednesday.
• 2,193 nursing home deaths, up two from Wednesday.
• 15,463 cumulative cases in Garland County, up 56 from Wednesday.
• 31 rolling seven-day average of new cases, down 0.43 from Wednesday.
• 152,631 PCR and antigen test reports, up 338 from Wednesday.
• 10.3% cumulative PCR infection rate, no change from Wednesday.
• 295 active cases in Garland County, up five from Wednesday.
• 14,801 recoveries in Garland County, up 50 from Wednesday.
• 367 deaths, up one from Wednesday.