South China Sea fueling tensions

It's a ruling that China cannot accept, and one that the Philippines must.

An international arbitration panel's decision on the contested waters of the South China Sea so far is fueling regional tensions rather than tamping them down.

In the ensuing 11 days, China has responded to the sweeping victory for the Philippines by flexing its military might. The Philippines faces pressure both at home and abroad not to cede an inch to China after the July 12 decision by a tribunal at The Hague-based Permanent Court of Arbitration.

The South China Sea is dotted with reefs and rocky outcroppings that several governments claim, including China and the Philippines. The arbitration panel didn't take a position on who owns the disputed territories. It did conclude that many of them are legally rocks, even if they've been built into islands, and therefore do not include the rights to develop the surrounding waters. That and other findings invalidated much of what China's called its historic claims to the resource-rich sea.

In order to ease tensions, China, the Philippines and possibly other claimants must define what the ruling means for fishing, offshore oil and gas exploration, and military and other activities in the vast body of water that lies between the southern Chinese coast and the Philippine archipelago.

A major diplomatic test starts Sunday in Laos at a three-day meeting of Southeast Asian foreign ministers that will include sessions with their Chinese and U.S. counterparts. Past ASEAN meetings have broken down over disagreements between those taking China's side and those opposing it. The U.S., whose Navy patrols the waters, has called on China to abide by the ruling while also urging calm.

Longer-term, there are compelling reasons for China and the Philippines to talk, but also significant obstacles to that happening. Unless the two sides can find a way around their impasse, the ruling may simply prolong the South China Sea's long-running territorial disputes, which also involve Vietnam, Taiwan, Malaysia and Brunei in a mesh of overlapping claims.

CHINA

In recent days, the military has staged live-firing exercises in the area and stated it would begin regular aerial patrols over the sea. It also has asserted that it will not be deterred from continuing construction of its man-made islands in the South China Sea.

In a veiled threat, a senior government official said that China has a right to declare an air defense identification zone over the area if its security is threatened. Under a so-called ADIZ, countries require that aircraft in the zone identify themselves and their routes and follow Chinese instructions. At least the U.S. and Japan would almost certainly refuse to comply, creating new opportunities for confrontation.

While Beijing's initial fury was widely foreseen, the controversy essentially disappeared from Chinese state media on Friday, a possible indication that China is preparing to tone it down.

The approach threatened to tarnish China's global prestige by making it appear unwilling to play by the rules of international law. In particular, China's relations with the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations could suffer, further reducing its hopes of regaining its status as Asia's dominant political and economic power.

Under such circumstances, Beijing might at least try to give the appearance of engagement on the issue. China is hosting the G20 meeting of major economies in September and doesn't want the summit to turn into a "China-bashing fest," said Yanmei Xie of the International Crisis Group think tank. However, it's far from clear whether its neighbors will see any outreach from China as sincere. The Philippines already has turned down an offer for bilateral talks, saying China first must recognize the panel's ruling.

PHILIPPINES

The Philippines new president, Rodrigo Duterte, is on a tightrope.

The arbitration ruling was a huge legal victory, but also presents a dilemma to Duterte, who has made friendly overtures to Beijing.

On one side, he aspires to repair strained relations with the Asian economic powerhouse, which has offered to finance railway projects he had sought. On the other, any move that can be seen as a compromise on the ruling can provide ammunition to his political opponents. The Philippines wants the Chinese coast guard to stop harassing Filipino fishermen near reefs claimed by China, as well as to allow it to explore for desperately needed offshore oil and gas.

"The new government here in Manila is grappling with what might be called catastrophic success," former Australian National Security Adviser Andrew Shearer said last week. "What comes next is obviously going to be a delicate balancing act."

Philippine Foreign Secretary Perfecto Yasay Jr. has revealed that, during talks on the sidelines of a recent Asia-Europe meeting in Mongolia, his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi asked Manila to be open to bilateral negotiations "outside of and in disregard of the arbitral ruling."

"This is something that I told him was not consistent with our constitution and our national interest," Yasay said. Wang warned that if the Philippines insists on Chinese compliance with the ruling, "then we might be headed for a confrontation," he said.