The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's revised guidance that even vaccinated people wear masks indoors in areas with high transmissions came as no surprise to Dr. Gene Shelby, Garland County health officer and COVID-19 task force member, given the onslaught of the delta variant of the virus.
While the vaccine remains effective against severe cases of the delta variant, even those who have received their vaccinations can get infected. This is causing somewhat of a shift in how local establishments, including schools and hospitals, respond to pandemic threats.
"Yeah, I mean, it's really kind of changed the game over the last couple months here in the United States and certainly in Arkansas over the last six weeks because it is so contagious," Shelby said Tuesday during an interview at The Sentinel-Record.
"You know, one way of looking at it is, you know -- the seasonal flu, on average -- one person will give it to one person. In the original COVID-19, one person on average would give it to two and a half people. But with the delta variant, one person, on average, will give it to eight other people. So you can see how it's a real snowball effect."
Shelby said during Monday's Hot Springs/Garland County COVID-19 Task Force meeting that there had been 482 new cases reported for the week from July 18-25 with an average of 60 new cases per day. The number of active cases rose by 189 from the previous week to 556 at the time of the meeting. There were also two additional deaths from COVID reported during the week.
Video not playing? Click here https://www.youtube.com/embed/w0_QtqeHu9E
"(It's) one of the really disturbing trends that I've been watching, that I've been sharing with them," Shelby said of the delta variant. "But it's really almost accelerated the last couple weeks, in that five weeks ago, we were at six new cases per day and now we're at 60 for the past week. So that's a tenfold increase in five weeks. And also our active cases have gone from 63 five weeks ago up to about 600, so we've also seen, you know, a tenfold increase in that, also."
Shelby said this is to be expected in some ways as it is a highly contagious and deadly respiratory virus, especially due to the fact that the delta variant makes up around 90% of the cases.
"It would all kind of be predictable based upon that," he said. "And, you know, unfortunately, the social distancing and masking is really not being adhered to -- even the recommendations -- and hopefully, it sounds like the CDC will kind of go backwards on that a little bit, which I think is a good move."
Director of the U.S. National Institutes of Health Dr. Anthony Fauci said Sunday he felt the pandemic was going in the "wrong direction" as there were too many people choosing not to get vaccinated.
Shelby said Monday the two local hospitals, CHI St. Vincent Hot Springs and National Park Medical Center, went from 25 to 62 COVID patients over the last two weeks with 22 in intensive care and 13 on ventilators. He said that during Monday's task force meeting, hospital representatives said they are revisiting policies.
"Things have changed so much in the last three months," Shelby said. "So, you know, three months ago we were -- we didn't have anybody in the hospital with COVID. And that was true for several weeks, and so they were able to certainly go back to full service in terms of elective procedures and even relaxing some of their visitation. But things have changed so much so fast that they're really having to revisit those policies. ... And with the delta variant, it is affecting younger people. One of the hospitals reports that they've got someone that's really sick that's 22 years old in the hospital."
When asked whether either institution was limiting elective procedures just yet, representatives from both said they have not taken any action.
"CHI St. Vincent continues to schedule and conduct elective procedures at this time and our ministry remains prepared to effectively, safely and expertly deliver care for all patients at our care sites," Bonnie Ward, CHI's director of marketing and communication, said.
"CHI St. Vincent continues to monitor the situation and coordinate closely with other area hospitals and the Arkansas Department of Health as we maintain critical care services for patients with a wide range of health care needs, including the rising number of people in our communities with COVID-19. Each of our facilities continuously reviews their surge capacity plans with emergency preparedness teams to ensure we remain able to serve our communities," she said.
"The health and safety of our patients, visitors, staff and health care providers are our highest priorities as we continue to provide critical care to our communities. The COVID-19 virus will likely be with us for a long time and we will all need to remain vigilant in slowing the spread through public safety measures, masking and vaccinations."
NPMC Director of Marketing and Communications Mandy Golleher had a similar response Tuesday.
"We are continuing to closely monitor COVID-19 in our community," she said. "At this time we are not limiting elective procedures. Our team is in ongoing conversation to ensure safe care is available to our community."