That Brad Cox alone might fill the Churchill Downs gate with horses for Kentucky Derby 149 remains a longshot on the order of the sun rising in the west or a Republican rebuking Donald Trump.
With the first Saturday in May 75 days off as of Monday, it's not likely to happen. But as more and more of Cox's 3-year-olds win, it's something to consider.
Cox, a 42-year-old Louisville native with one Kentucky Derby skin on the wall, isn't the only horseman who'll be worthy of limo service May 6 in his hometown. But unless it was Bob Baffert -- before that, Todd Pletcher or Wayne Lukas -- did anyone think that the race might be seen through one man's eyes?
Winning the Grade 2 Risen Star Saturday at Fair Grounds, Oaklawn-raced Angel of Empire leads with 54 points in a series of Derby qualifying races. Fifty points go to the Triple Crown-eligible winner of Saturday's Grade 2 $1 million Rebel, last major prep before the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby April 1.
Cox has other top-10 prospects in Instant Coffee and Hit Show with Jace's Road, Victory Formation and Tapit's Conquest also in contention and Verifying and Loggins on the periphery.
John Ed Anthony woke up several mornings in 1993 beholding a similar panorama. The Hot Springs horseman, with a Belmont Stakes and a Preakness win in the books, saw his then-Loblolly Stable take one big Derby prep after another that spring. Dalhart, Marked Tree and Prairie Bayou looked like can't-miss prospects while Dry Bean and Over Jack Mountain had followings.
Two nights before the Arkansas Derby, attending a party for racing people at Anthony's lakefront home, jockey Julie Krone stole the show. In town to ride another horse back when they called it the Racing Festival of the South, Julie dropped to her knees, playfully asking the host for a spoonful of that gravy in weeks ahead.
That was before Rockamundo rocked the tote board with such force (108-1 odds) that everything not tied down risked getting unearthed. In one of Calvin Borel's milestone victories at Oaklawn, riding for trainer Orin "Buddy" Glass and Omaha owners Gary and Mary West, Key to the Mint's son prevailed by a length over John Franks' Kissin Kiss. Rockamundo won only other one race in 17 career starts, though becoming as the poster child of Hot Springs racing upsets.
Over Jack Mountain and Dalhart placed seventh and ninth, respectively, out of 10. Anthony was overheard to say later, "Looks like Loblolly will have a one-horse entry in the Kentucky Derby."
With a better trip in Louisville, Prairie Bayou would have collected Anthony's Triple Crown collection. Wavering Monarch's son was floated wide -- how about suburban Shively -- at the head of the stretch -- while Sea Hero, with Jerry Bailey, rode the fence for a popular victory for racetrack veterans Paul Mellon (owner) and Mack Miller (trainer).
Calling from the Churchill Downs press box, I consoled Anthony, "You're just not old enough to win this race yet. Give yourself time." That was a year after fellow Arkansan Cal Partee posed for pictures with Lil E. Tee and three after Frances Genter, with Unbridled, got a personalized stretch call from trainer Carl Nafzger.
Prairie Bayou went on to win a second Preakness for Anthony and trainer Tom Bohannan but fatally broke down in the Belmont. With incomparable equipoise in the face of such tragedy, Anthony returned a sportswriter's phone call after returning home to Hot Springs -- a day I remember also for the death of Arkansas-born singer Conway Twitty. (The race winner, you ask? Colonial Affair, Krone aboard and breaking through a glass ceiling for females in the Triple Crown.)
Cox was awarded the 2021 Derby with runner-up Mandaloun after winner Medina Spirit (since deceased) failed a drug test. A cause for celebration, all night, but still not equivalent to clinking Champagne glasses in the Churchill Downs board room or seeing one's horse festooned with Derby roses. Hall of Famer Bill Mott went through this two years earlier with Country House upon winner Maximum Security's on-track DQ.
Cox entered meet winner Verifying and Giant Mischief in the Rebel, one of three local stakes Saturday. Cox (four) and Baffert (three) have combined to win seven of Oaklawn's last 10 Kentucky Derby points races, including the first two in 2023. Victory Formation and Angel of Empire ran one-two in the Smarty Jones mile Jan. 1 and Baffert, on a rare visit east, himself watched Arabian Knight's tour de force in the Grade 3 Southwest Jan. 28.
Baffert trainee Reincarnate (Tim Yakteen the listed trainer) and local stakes winner Frosted Departure (Ken McPeek) are entered along with Bourbon Bash for 85-year-old Wayne Lukas, an Oaklawn stakes winner Saturday with 5-year-old Last Samurai in the Grade 3 Razorback Handicap.
No trainer may be more aware of his Derby record than 0-for-24 Steve Asmussen. Though winning only 8 percent at the meet through Sunday, he entered Powerful, meet winner Gun Pilot and Southwest runner-up Red Route One in the Rebel, which Monday drew 11 starters.
With Baffert suspended at Churchill Downs for another Derby, some trainers might need speech writers. Especially with the race in his hometown, at least one horseman is sure to have more ticket requests than he can handle.